Comprehensive GBP/USD for October 20, 2023

In this comprehensive analysis, Ultima Markets brings you an insightful breakdown of the GBP/USD for 20th October 2023. 

Key Takeaways 

• High Inflation low hike expectations: Although Wednesday’s CPI data was stronger than expected, considering that CPI is still lower than the central bank’s August forecast of 6.9%, the monthly price level still maintains a downward trend. Therefore, the Bank of England may continue to maintain the current high interest rates for some time. 
• Powell disturbed the market: In the early morning, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell gave a speech that if he saw further signs of strong economic growth, he might raise interest rates again. This statement shocked the market. 
• Lack of long-term economic momentum in the UK: The UK faces high public debt, a possible recession, rising energy prices and the upcoming general election, all of which may limit economic growth and hit the pound. 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis 

GBP/USD Daily Chart Insights

• Stochastic Oscillator: The indicator fell below the midline yesterday, and there is a possibility that the market will decline further. 
• Price Action: The bar closed as a doji bar yesterday, indicating the current balance of long and short forces. The market today is bound to be a big fluctuation market – either it will accelerate the decline, or it will rise sharply. 

GBP/USD 4-hour Chart Analysis

• Fibonacci price: Yesterday, the exchange rate rose rapidly after falling to the 78.6% retracement price of the previous upward trend line. It is currently blocked by the 33-period and 65-period moving averages. If the 78.6% retracement level still fails to prevent the market from falling, the exchange rate may look towards the 1.2036. 
• Stochastic Oscillator: The indicator has formed a golden cross yesterday and is currently blocked at the 50 midline. This means that short-term bulls are exhausted, and transactions still need to wait for the breakthrough of the midline before confirmation. 
• Price Action: The market has rebounded four times in a row, and each rebound cannot exceed the previous one. The continuous lowering of high price means that the short force always has the upper hand. If the market wants to reverse, it needs to destroy the current structure, that is, break through the previous rebound high of 1.2190. 

Conclusion 

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